This is a video of a play in the German Bund(FGBL).
I was sitting this morning doing by pre-market stuff, not really sure whether we should down in the Bonds in general or keep tagging higher highs. As i’ve learned during my old DAX-drawdown days is…. Don’t think too much, you’ll just get burned trying to outsmart the market, when trying to be clever. So in general i see the market as my master, and i’m a listener with no opinion :).
We started out with some runs in the indices, closing gaps etc etc to the upside, and i was watching the Bund & BOBL too, which had a little sell off to start out with.
The Bund began retracing, and the indices began to get hammered hard to the downside. Some one was aggressively selling the stoxx with over 1000 contracts at a time. I would love to have joined the Stoxx hammering the bids, but the volatility is a bit too extreme this morning… at least for my wallet.
I decided to look for an entry in the Bund. We got a nice retracement after a nice rally up, and price just wouldn’t go below 187.83 again.
We got a print down into 167.85 with over 400 contracts, but they were easily absorbed. After that .86’s were liftet with no backprinting, then .87’s with only 1 contract back print.
This was a clear setup for me to hit the Offer @ 167.88.
Please take a look at the over 2000 contracts sitting on the offer @ 167.95. Someones getting burned heavily as we’re going for a stop run.
as we approach 197.93-167.94 i would have expected those offers to pull off instantly if they were fake. But they didn’t.
Buying was very hesitant up here, but as you can see around 10 minutes into the video we began to dig into that offer.
@ 11:25’ish someones slowly buying that level, and if you were a seller up here, you should have already left the playground when you saw that those offers weren’t pulled off.
I tried to get every tick out of this move, so i micro managed my stop and got out @ 168.00. To my surprise i was still in a position as i’ve entered with one more contract. Luckily i quickly noticed it and got out. Shit happens sometimes when you’re in the heat.
This was a swing trade, where i left some room for the trade to work out with a bit more size as i’ve accumulated enough over the last few weeks to take a calculated loss.
I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to have such a tool, where you can see the inside market. A chart is nice and convenient, but it’s an after the fact picture of what’s happening at the inside market.
Is some of it luck ?. YES, the luck is here that the Offer didn’t pull off and we made a new high. The edge is to enter at the lows
Best of trading to all of you