NFP Friday +++ A bunch of other heavy news. Did you take the shaft or did you give!.
I usually tell people to stay away from most products when approaching heavy news like Yesterday.
Though i’m heavily relying on those news myself to gain a true edge — Pushing the boundaries in the bond markets, reading extreme absorption and reloading of orders at different price levels!.
I got a message from a student i’ve teached over the past 6 months, in order to gain a true edge reading the inside market from an orderflow perspective. He basically drove his account down 30% at a mindblocking coincidence of NOT responding to those gazillions of contracts hammering bids. You guessed right, he was long aiming for a nice swing up prior to the news with NO hard stop.
The bond markets are not at all like trading indices, where you can easily hit 5 basis points in the ES in both directions as price action is sufficient – It’s putting a needle in balloon of water, it only stops in one direction if heavy orders show up to attack a level — aggressively, i.e heavy absorption & reloading.
You need to stay-the-f…-out if you’re approaching news like this as you’re a rookie. Even as a pro, if no one is lifting/hammering the offers like my student. GET OUT – PERIOD, PERIOD, PERIOD.
So what did i do?. I waited for the HFT’s to finish their show and i was actually looking to get in, in the 10 year for another smack to the downside — my mind changed within a split second, as i did not see enough aggressive selling. The 5 year, which i’m rarely trading, showed SIGNIFICANT absorption & reloading at exact 11410 where i placed my bid(with sufficient size) and nailed 8 ticks.
So what was important here? – all the things that happened across the German Bonds & the US Bonds at the SAME time. No one was hitting any bids in 6 other markets and someone was sucking a massive load of contracts in the 5 year – that was my clue, HIT THAT OFFER and step on the train!!. Now 8 ticks may not sound like much, i often hear – hit that with 20Lots and you can calcutate the result for yourself.
If you like to turn your trading around and become profitable, reach out to me. I will ask a lot of questions and take you under my wings. It will be tough, hard and painfull at times – but trust me, it’s your state of mind i will be tweaking to make you a success.
Just for info, the attached picture is exactly how my screen is looking at an NFP-day!
Best of trading